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Taiwan Update - Increasing pressure on ruling DPP - 20 February 2023
China is proactively helping pro-unification parties in Taiwan in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.
Taiwan Update - Maintaining the status quo remains top priority for Taiwan’s Vice President - 2 February 2023
Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai was sworn in as the new chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on 18 January. As the only candidate for the position, Lai received almost 100 percent of the DPP votes, making him the most likely DPP candidate for Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024.
Growing calls for a Free Trade Agreement between the US and Taiwan
Taiwan is pushing for deeper institutionalized trade ties with the United States, as Taipei diversifies its trade ties beyond the mainland. At the same time, Washington’s economic policy toward Taiwan is changing as China’s growing military and political assertiveness continues to exacerbate the region’s risk environment.
Taiwan Update - US Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA) substantially strengthens US-Taiwan military cooperation - 20 January 2023
The Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA), signed by President Biden on 23 December 2022 as part of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), represents a significant increase in US military support to Taiwan and quickly drew condemnation from China.
Closer ties between China and Russia
Cooperation between China and Russia has been growing for some months now, as China provides Russia with an economic lifeline, while gaining a significant increase in the delivery of Russian oil and gas. The symbolic meeting between the two leaders in March strengthens those ties further.
Risk to civilian ships and aircraft in the South China Sea
In recent years, China has militarized several disputed islands in the South China Sea. As an essential artery for world trade, it poses an economic and political security threat to the world. Increasing skirmishes between China, the US, Australia, and other countries, is also increasing the risk of incidents involving civilian shipping and aircraft.
Japan-China relations deteriorate
For the first time, Japan has identified China as an unprecedented “strategic challenge”, leading it to announce three new defense strategies that will guide Japan’s defense posture for the next 5 to 10 years. In response, Japan will increase its 2023-2027 defense budget to $315 billion, nearly 1.6 times that for 2019- 2023, and equal to the defense budget of Russia.
Taiwan: “The red line”
For Beijing, Taiwan is “the very core of China's core interests [and] the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations”. The US and its allies view the Taiwan Strait as a potential “choke point” for the global supply chain, while the Taiwan population is wary of provoking Beijing.
The rise of Chinese state-sponsored cyber-attacks feeds growing US national security concerns
The global cyber security landscape has seen increasing threats over the last few years. The COVID pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan have all provided fertile ground for cyberattacks against businesses and individuals.
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