Executive Brief

The Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act

The Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA), signed by President Biden on 23 December 2022 as part of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), represents a significant increase in US military support to Taiwan and quickly drew condemnation from China. TERA surpasses the $1.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan that the US approved in September and authorizes:

• $2 billion of annual military grant assistance from 2023 to 2027.
• A 12-year military financing package of up to $2 billion for Taiwan to purchase US-made weapons.
• Establishing a regional contingency stockpile of defense articles for Taiwan, which essentially makes Taiwan a de facto major non-NATO ally (MNNA). There are 18 countries with MNNA status.
• A mandate for the Biden administration to prioritize and expedite the processing of Taiwan arms sale requests.
• Enhanced interoperability and capability for joint operations with Taiwan’s military; the bill also suggests inviting Taiwan to officially participate in an upcoming US-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise.

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry welcomed TERA, saying it “highly demonstrates the firm stance of the US to support the strengthening of all-round cooperation between Taiwan and the US.

Shortly after the bill’s signing, on 28 December the US government approved a $180 million sales package of Volcano mine-laying anti-tank systems to Taiwan. China’s Foreign Ministry denounced the sale.

China has reacted angrily to TERA. China’s national legislature, foreign and defense ministries, and Taiwan Affairs Office issued separate statements condemning the bill for “a serious political provocation against China” and vowing to “firmly safeguard [China’s] sovereignty, security, and development interests.” Chinese state media carried a barrage of attacks against the US move, stating TERA is more evidence that the US is turning Taiwan into “an outpost against China."

On 23 December, during a phone call with US Secretary of State Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister WANG Yi accused the US of “salami- slicing tactics” on the Taiwan issue and warned that this could lead to a “head-on collision” between the two countries. China’s military predictably put on a show of force:

• On 25 December operated 71 aircraft and 7 ships around Taiwan. Forty-seven of the aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which has acted as an unofficial boundary observed by both sides for decades. The PLA continued its military harassment around Taiwan on and after New Year’s Day.
• According to Taiwan military data, PLA air intrusions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone have increased steadily over the past few years: 380 intrusions in 2020, 960 in 2021, and 1,727 in 2022.

On 8 and 9 January, in reaction to a series of high- level visits by Western parliamentarians to Taiwan, the PLA conducted a large-scale exercise around Taiwan that simulated amphibious and other operations. The PLA said the exercise—in which 57 aircraft and 4 warships participated—was designed to “counter provocation and collusion with external forces by Taiwan independence forces.” The exercises resembled China’s actions last August after Speaker Pelosi’s visit. Chinese experts predict similar PLA responses if Speaker McCarthy carries out his pledge to visit Taiwan.

• In response to the PLA provocations, on 11 January Taiwan launched its own military exercise designed to improve capabilities for countering a possible Chinese invasion.

Taiwan’s internal challenges

On 27 December Taiwan President TSAI Ing-wen announced a decision to extend compulsory military service for Taiwanese males from four months to one year, effective 1 January 2024. Tsai said the decision was part of Taiwan’s “preparedness for war.” She emphasized that, only by being prepared for war can Taiwan deter war with China. The Chinese government said Taiwan’s decision is turning Taiwan youth into “cannon fodder.” Chinese military experts believe Taiwan’s decision, which was announced only after Taiwan’s local elections in November, was a political move made under US pressure and would have no military significance. Taiwan’s military has 210,000 soldiers, 180,000 of whom are career volunteers and 30,000 are conscripts.

In his New Year’s message, Taiwan’s former president and opposition party leader MA Ying-jeou attacked Tsai’s mainland policy and her decision to extend conscription. Ma said “war preparation” will not deter war and only “peace dialogue” can avoid war. He called on the Taiwanese to vote for his Kuomintang party (KMT) in the 2024 general election and promised that the KMT in power means no war. When Ma met Chinese President XI Jinping in 2015 in Singapore, both agreed to promote peace across the Taiwan Strait. In the 2016 elections, Tsai’s pro-independence DPP defeated Ma’s KMT as Taiwan voters demonstrated mistrust of KMT intentions toward China. Mainland officials believe the KMT is more open than the DPP to discuss reunification.