Executive Brief

Cross-Strait Relations

China is proactively helping pro-unification parties in Taiwan in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election:

China announced resumption of imports for 63 Taiwan food and liquor products that had been among the more than 100 items it banned last August in retaliation for US Speaker Pelosi’s visit to the island. China said its decision to resume imports was in response to appeals from Taiwan opposition party KMT and New Party, a pro-unification faction of the KMT, on behalf of the Taiwan business community.

China proposed to resume direct air service across the Taiwan Strait in accordance with the Cross-Strait Air Transport Agreement signed with the then ruling KMT government in 2008; the agreement was suspended in February 2020 due to Covid. China proposed 16 Chinese cities as the first direct flight destinations. On 8 February China again urged the Taiwan government to “follow the aspirations of the Taiwan people and business community” and accept the mainland proposal. Before Covid, nearly 10 million passengers traveled across the Strait in the first 11 months of 2019.

On 6 February eight Kinmen County Councilors formed a “Cross-Party Administration Counseling Alliance” and a “Nonpartisan Alliance” that proposed to turn the frontline islands controlled by Taiwan into a Demilitarized Zone.

They also proposed constructing a bridge linking Kinmen (also known by its former name, Quemoy) and the mainland city of Xiamen, as well as creation of a Kinmen-Xiamen Special Economic Zone.

At the height of the conflict between Taiwan and the mainland in the 1960s and 1970s, both sides had fired artillery against each other almost daily—Kinmen is an island less than 2 miles from the mainland coast.

At the time, Taiwan had 120,000 soldiers stationed on Kinmen, but it currently garrisons only around 2,000 soldiers there. The Kinmen politicians said residents on Taiwan’s frontline islands have reached consensus that history should not be repeated, and they do not want war. The mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office quickly welcomed the proposal.

A delegation led by Andrew Hsia, Vice Chairman of Taiwan’s opposition KMT Party, began a visit to China on 8 February. Chinese top leaders in charge of Taiwan affairs told Hsia that China was ready to increase communication and work with the KMT to “fight against Taiwan independence and promote peace and prosperity across the strait.” The KMT delegation, which will stay in the mainland until 17 February and visit multiple cities, has four goals:

• Meet with Beijing’s new leadership on Taiwan affairs.
• Convey Taiwan’s concerns about Taiwan Strait security and expectations for peace and stability.
• Seek solutions for Taiwan’s farmers, fishermen, and businesses.
• Engage with Taiwan business communities on the mainland.

The Mainland Affairs Council of the Taiwan government commented on the visit saying that Beijing handled the meetings with Hsia in a way that was “harming our sovereign dignity.” It urged Beijing to “abandon coercive thinking towards Taiwan.

Beijing continues to reject direct dialogue with Taiwan’s ruling DPP 2 February

President TSAI Ing-wen told 300 Taiwan business leaders, “We have left the door open for communications [with Beijing].”

She reiterated that her administration was willing to engage Beijing if both sides were “rational, equal and respectful” of each other.

At the start of the KMT visit, the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) rejected Tsai’s latest offer and said her words could not be trusted. TAO stated, “Dialogue between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can resume if the DPP authority accepts the “1992 Consensus” that embodied the One China principle, and with real actions, stop its provocations of Taiwan Independence and stop confronting the mainland in conspiracy with external forces.

In January the Taiwan government announced a target to attract 6 million tourists in 2023, including 1 million from the mainland. On 8 February China’s TAO said Taiwan authorities were paying lip service to resuming personnel exchanges across the Strait, and, consequently, it was impossible to think about one million Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan in 2023.

• In 2019, before Taiwan banned all entries from the mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau due to Covid, Taiwan had a record of 11.86 million overseas tourists, of which those from the mainland made up the largest group (2.71 million).

On 11 February the Taiwan government denied entry to a 38-member memorial delegation from China following the death of an influential Buddhist monk who had advocated for One China. China’s TAO denounced the decision, which Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said was prompted by the mainland not following the mechanism for official visits and attempting to exploit the funeral for political purposes. The KMT said the government’s decision showed that the DPP has no sincerity in resuming communications with the mainland.

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