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Executive Brief

Maintaining the status quo remains top priority for Taiwan’s Vice President

Presidential Transition Dynamics

Lai takes over as chairman of ruling DPP

Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai was sworn in as the new chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on 18 January. As the only candidate for the position, Lai received almost 100 percent of the DPP votes, making him the most likely DPP candidate for Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024.

A Taiwan media poll published on 17 January indicated Lai would have 34% support in a 2024 election, 3% more than his most likely KMT opponent.

Lai's strong support for Taiwan indepenence
  • Lai, 56, is known for his steadfast Taiwan independence position.
  • As former premier, Lai declared in 2017 that he was “a pragmatic political worker for Taiwan Independence” and that his position would never change “no matter what future job I hold."
  • Lai believes the US is key for Taiwan’s future. During his campaign for the chairmanship, he addressed questions about US involvement in Taiwan’s defense given the Ukraine situation. Lai defended the US and urged Taiwan media to stop spreading “comments of distrust” about the US.

During his press conference after being named DPP chairman, Lai said he will continue the policies of his DPP predecessor, Taiwan’s current president, TSAI Ing-wen:

  1. Defend Taiwan’s constitutional democracy
  2. Ensure Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other
  3. Resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty
  4. Guarantee that Taiwan’s future is determined by the Taiwan people alone.

He stated Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent nation and therefore has no need to declare its independence. He emphasized that appeasement will not bring peace and Taiwan’s “peace depends on its defense."

Declaration of "One China, One Taiwan"?

Political commentators in both mainland China and Taiwan believe Lai’s comments equate to a declaration of “One China, One Taiwan.”

Consequently, they see little prospect that Beijing will restart dialogue with Taiwan’s DPP anytime soon. If Lai wins Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election, Beijing will perceive that “peaceful unification” is not possible, at least for the four years of Lai’s tenure. These observers cite Chinese President XI Jinping’s age and his ambition to complete unification as reasons that make it more likely that China will resort to force for unification.

New Year messages from Beijing and Taipei

Lunar New Year messages from Xi and Tsai indicate that Beijing and Taipei will continue their current course of actions and suggest that the likelihood of cross-Strait dialogue in the new year is slim.

President Xi used his speech to indirectly address the Taiwan issue and US involvement, saying, in 2022, “We have been fighting resolutely in major struggles against separatism and foreign interference, maintaining the initiative to steer cross-strait relations.” He called for Party and national unity and emphasized, “No storm can shake our iron will, and no difficulty can stop our sonorous steps.”

In her speech on the same day, President Tsai said, “In the face of frequent incursions by China’s military vessels and aircraft, and even its military exercises in areas around Taiwan, our government stands firm in its resolve to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and across the region.” She stated, “In the new year, our government will...defend our sovereignty and preserve peace.”

On 21 January Tsai wrote to Pope Francis in response to his New Year’s message of peace and blamed current tension across the Taiwan Strait on China, reiterating, “Only by respecting the commitment of the Taiwanese people to our sovereignty, democracy, and freedom can there be a foundation for resuming constructive interaction across the Taiwan Strait.” The Vatican is the only European state that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Chairman Lai will continue the policies of Taiwan's current President, Tsai Ing-Wen
  1. Defend Taiwan's constituntional democracy
  2. Ensure Taiwan and China re not subordinate to each other
  3. Resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan's sovereignty
  4. Guarantee that Taiwan's future is determined by the Taiwan people alone

Presidential Transition Dynamics

Lai takes over as chairman of ruling DPP

Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai was sworn in as the new chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on 18 January. As the only candidate for the position, Lai received almost 100 percent of the DPP votes, making him the most likely DPP candidate for Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024.

A Taiwan media poll published on 17 January indicated Lai would have 34% support in a 2024 election, 3% more than his most likely KMT opponent.

Lai's strong support for Taiwan indepenence
  • Lai, 56, is known for his steadfast Taiwan independence position.
  • As former premier, Lai declared in 2017 that he was “a pragmatic political worker for Taiwan Independence” and that his position would never change “no matter what future job I hold."
  • Lai believes the US is key for Taiwan’s future. During his campaign for the chairmanship, he addressed questions about US involvement in Taiwan’s defense given the Ukraine situation. Lai defended the US and urged Taiwan media to stop spreading “comments of distrust” about the US.

During his press conference after being named DPP chairman, Lai said he will continue the policies of his DPP predecessor, Taiwan’s current president, TSAI Ing-wen:

  1. Defend Taiwan’s constitutional democracy
  2. Ensure Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other
  3. Resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty
  4. Guarantee that Taiwan’s future is determined by the Taiwan people alone.

He stated Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent nation and therefore has no need to declare its independence. He emphasized that appeasement will not bring peace and Taiwan’s “peace depends on its defense."

Declaration of "One China, One Taiwan"?

Political commentators in both mainland China and Taiwan believe Lai’s comments equate to a declaration of “One China, One Taiwan.”

Consequently, they see little prospect that Beijing will restart dialogue with Taiwan’s DPP anytime soon. If Lai wins Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election, Beijing will perceive that “peaceful unification” is not possible, at least for the four years of Lai’s tenure. These observers cite Chinese President XI Jinping’s age and his ambition to complete unification as reasons that make it more likely that China will resort to force for unification.

New Year messages from Beijing and Taipei

Lunar New Year messages from Xi and Tsai indicate that Beijing and Taipei will continue their current course of actions and suggest that the likelihood of cross-Strait dialogue in the new year is slim.

President Xi used his speech to indirectly address the Taiwan issue and US involvement, saying, in 2022, “We have been fighting resolutely in major struggles against separatism and foreign interference, maintaining the initiative to steer cross-strait relations.” He called for Party and national unity and emphasized, “No storm can shake our iron will, and no difficulty can stop our sonorous steps.”

In her speech on the same day, President Tsai said, “In the face of frequent incursions by China’s military vessels and aircraft, and even its military exercises in areas around Taiwan, our government stands firm in its resolve to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and across the region.” She stated, “In the new year, our government will...defend our sovereignty and preserve peace.”

On 21 January Tsai wrote to Pope Francis in response to his New Year’s message of peace and blamed current tension across the Taiwan Strait on China, reiterating, “Only by respecting the commitment of the Taiwanese people to our sovereignty, democracy, and freedom can there be a foundation for resuming constructive interaction across the Taiwan Strait.” The Vatican is the only European state that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Chairman Lai will continue the policies of Taiwan's current President, Tsai Ing-Wen
  1. Defend Taiwan's constituntional democracy
  2. Ensure Taiwan and China re not subordinate to each other
  3. Resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan's sovereignty
  4. Guarantee that Taiwan's future is determined by the Taiwan people alone

Military Affairs

Speculation over Speaker McCarthy visit to Taiwan

The US and China held their first military-to-military dialogue on 17 January since China suspended military contacts after Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Michael Chase spoke on the phone with Major General SONG Yanchao, Deputy Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation in China’s Central Military Commission. Although the focus of the US-initiated contact was the war in Ukraine, Song used the occasion to raise China’s concerns about a potential visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy could visit Taiwan in April when Congress is in spring recess. The Pentagon is making logistical preparations for his trip as well as evaluating China’s possible military response. On 30 January Taiwan media speculated that McCarthy may arrive in Taiwan on 11 April.

Some Chinese commentators predict that if McCarthy visits Taiwan, China will take even more dramatic actions against Taiwan.

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