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Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 3: China condemns Taiwan's Presidential Election results
Beijing’s disinformation campaigns combined with economic and military pressure failed to influence the outcome of Taiwan’s presidential election in favor of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party.
Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 2: Taiwan President-elect's victory formula
Taiwan Vice President William Lai’s (LAI Ching-te) election victory on 13 January marked the first time since Taiwan started direct presidential elections in 1996 that a party will hold the presidency over three consecutive terms.
2024 Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections Outlook
Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections scheduled to take place this coming Saturday are the first set of elections in what will be a “year of elections.”
Taiwan’s economy with risk exposure in China and cross-Strait tensions are causing concern for Western companies
Cross-Strait tensions, and the 2024 Taiwan presidential elections, are prompting some Western organizations and investors to diversify away from both Taiwan and China in order to minimize risk exposure to the mainland.
Lai and Hsiao register as DPP presidential and vice-presidential candidates in Taiwan 2024 elections
Taiwan’s former envoy to the US, Bi-khim Hsiao, and Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai), head of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and frontrunner in the upcoming presidential elections, became the first contenders to officially register their candidacy for the Taiwanese elections on 13 January 2024.
Biden-Xi Meeting Yields Agreements, but Taiwan Remains Flashpoint
On 15 November, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met at the Filoli Estate country house near San Francisco during the APEC summit to discuss key issues, such as Taiwan, climate change, and fentanyl trade.
Will the Israel-Hamas conflict embolden China in the Taiwan Strait?
Beijing's response to the Israel-Hamas war has implications for China's strategic thinking towards Iran and the Middle East and, most importantly, towards Taiwan. With the US supplying wars in Ukraine and Israel, will China be emboldened to pursue more aggressive moves in the Strait?
Taiwan Update - Assertive rhetoric from Beijing and Taipei on potential cross- Strait confrontation - 17 July 2023
On 4 July Taiwan Vice President William Lai, the ruling DPP’s 2024 presidential candidate, published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal spelling out his “four-pillar plan” to preserve peace across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan Update - China-Russia coordinated actions in the Taiwan Strait - 3 July 2023
Laura Rosenberger, the new chair of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the de facto US Embassy, recently met with each of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential candidates from the top three political parties.
Japan follows the US and the Netherlands in restricting the export of chip-making equipment
After months of pressure from Washington, Japan has joined the US and the Netherlands in restriction the export of advanced chip-making equipment, as the technology race with China ramps up.
Taiwan Update - US-Taiwan trade - 2 June 2023
President Biden reiterated at his G7 press conference on 21 May that the US will maintain its One China policy.
Taiwan Update - Beijing sows uncertainty - 17 May 2023
The US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) for the first time used a scenario simulating defense of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion in its annual capabilities exercise (CAPEX) in April.
Tensions mount as Taiwan elections draw nearer
Washington is having to tread a delicate diplomatic tightrope as China starts to ramp up pressure on Taipei in advance of Taiwan’s presidential elections in January 2024.
Taiwan Update - Elevated risk environment in Taiwan Strait - 15 March 2023
On 6 March Defense Minister CHIU Kuo-cheng said Taiwan will not fire the first shot but will fire if Beijing enters Taiwan’s 12 nautical mile territorial waters. Chiu said, “China has changed the status quo of the Taiwan Strait by flying drones, aircraft, and balloons over our airspace, [and Beijing] could, without warning, break into our territorial sea baseline of 24 nautical miles and approach our territorial space of 12 nautical miles.”
China, Taiwan and the US – Pamir’s analysts assess Taiwan Strait tensions
At the end of March The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world, reported that Americans are increasingly worried about China-Taiwan tensions. According to Pew, 47% of US adults say tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem for their country, up 4% since October 2022 and 19% since February 2021.
How are China and Russia advancing their shared agendas?
Download our recent analyst paper to understand the key implications of recent China-Russia diplomatic developments.
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