Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 4: US reaction to Taiwan's Presidential Election

Washington’s measured response to the results of Taiwan’s presidential election reaffirms US efforts to uphold the status quo vis-à-vis China and Taiwan. The US has been urging China to not overreact to pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai’s victory in the Taiwan presidential election on 13 January. Prior to the vote, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Washington with LIU Jianchao, head of the Communist Party’s International Liaison Department. The Taiwan issue reportedly was the main topic of their meeting. The meeting was extraordinary because Liu is responsible for Party-to-Party relationships, not government interface; however, Liu is speculated to become China’s next foreign minister. 

Washington signals confirmation to Taipei and Beijing that US China policy has not changed. Responding to a press question on Taiwan’s election results, President Joe Biden simply said, “We do not support Taiwan independence.” An unnamed White House senior official was quoted as saying that the United States’ One China policy remains unchanged and called for maintenance of the status quo. 

Secretary of State Blinken issued a press statement congratulating Lai: “We look forward to working with Dr. Lai and Taiwan leaders of all parties to advance our shared interests and values and to further our longstanding unofficial relationship, consistent with the US One China policy as guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances.”  US congressional leaders sent congratulatory messages to Lai and to “the people of Taiwan on their success in holding another free, fair, and transparent election.” Japan’s Foreign Minister and senior officials from other US allies also sent congratulatory messages to Lai.

• China’s Foreign Ministry protested Blinken’s congratulatory statement, saying it violated the US commitment of maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan and sent a wrong signal to Taiwan. 

On 14 January former US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, and Laura Rosenberger, chair of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the organization charged with conducting US relations with Taiwan, arrived in Taipei. AIT said in a press release that the US delegation congratulated the success of Taiwan’s democratic elections and expressed US interest for lasting peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. 

• Observers believe the purpose of the delegation was to demonstrate continued US support for Taiwan and to restrain the DPP from going too far in its independence push. After previous DPP election victories in 2000 and 2016, the US also sent delegations of former senior officials to Taiwan. This unofficial visit was in keeping with precedent and was designed to not alarm Beijing.