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China Update - Absence of top-level comms hinders US and China from mitigating risk - 16 February 2023
China has taken an increasingly confrontational stand against the US in the wake of the spy balloon incident, accusing the US of engaging in “information and public opinion warfare.”
Taiwan Update - Maintaining the status quo remains top priority for Taiwan’s Vice President - 2 February 2023
Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai was sworn in as the new chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on 18 January. As the only candidate for the position, Lai received almost 100 percent of the DPP votes, making him the most likely DPP candidate for Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024.
Growing calls for a Free Trade Agreement between the US and Taiwan
Taiwan is pushing for deeper institutionalized trade ties with the United States, as Taipei diversifies its trade ties beyond the mainland. At the same time, Washington’s economic policy toward Taiwan is changing as China’s growing military and political assertiveness continues to exacerbate the region’s risk environment.
Taiwan Update - US Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA) substantially strengthens US-Taiwan military cooperation - 20 January 2023
The Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA), signed by President Biden on 23 December 2022 as part of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), represents a significant increase in US military support to Taiwan and quickly drew condemnation from China.
China and Brazil strengthen strategic trade and investment partnership
China’s interest in Brazil and Latin America beyond is part of its ongoing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to extend China’s influence across Latin America and more broadly the Global South. Brazilian President Lula da Silva is eager to strengthen economic ties with China.
Risk to civilian ships and aircraft in the South China Sea
In recent years, China has militarized several disputed islands in the South China Sea. As an essential artery for world trade, it poses an economic and political security threat to the world. Increasing skirmishes between China, the US, Australia, and other countries, is also increasing the risk of incidents involving civilian shipping and aircraft.
Japan-China relations deteriorate
For the first time, Japan has identified China as an unprecedented “strategic challenge”, leading it to announce three new defense strategies that will guide Japan’s defense posture for the next 5 to 10 years. In response, Japan will increase its 2023-2027 defense budget to $315 billion, nearly 1.6 times that for 2019- 2023, and equal to the defense budget of Russia.
The rise of Chinese state-sponsored cyber-attacks feeds growing US national security concerns
The global cyber security landscape has seen increasing threats over the last few years. The COVID pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan have all provided fertile ground for cyberattacks against businesses and individuals.
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