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China, Taiwan and the US – Pamir’s analysts assess Taiwan Strait tensions
At the end of March The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world, reported that Americans are increasingly worried about China-Taiwan tensions. According to Pew, 47% of US adults say tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem for their country, up 4% since October 2022 and 19% since February 2021.
China Update - Blinken-Wang meeting does nothing to reverse the deteriorating trend of US-China relations -1 March 2023
Beijing believes the Biden administration wants to force China to serve a US agenda. The Chinese leadership perceives Washington’s measures – supporting Taiwan independence, inhibiting trade, increasing military pressure around China, and imposing a technology blockade – as efforts to undermine China’s development.
US and China up the ante on export controls
Both sides are expanding and tightening export control enforcement of sensitive technologies and export violations that threaten national security in the escalating technology race between China and the West.
China Update - Absence of top-level comms hinders US and China from mitigating risk - 16 February 2023
China has taken an increasingly confrontational stand against the US in the wake of the spy balloon incident, accusing the US of engaging in “information and public opinion warfare.”
China Update - Pentagon’s comments on China confirm timeline for potential hostilities is contracting - 1 February 2023
Minihan’s memo and the ‘first island chain’ General Mike Minihan, Commander of the US Air Mobility Command (AMC), sent out a memo on 27 January telling his troops, “I hope I am wrong, my gut tells me [China and US] will fight in 2025,” as first reported by NBC News.
Taiwan Update - US Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA) substantially strengthens US-Taiwan military cooperation - 20 January 2023
The Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA), signed by President Biden on 23 December 2022 as part of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), represents a significant increase in US military support to Taiwan and quickly drew condemnation from China.
China and Brazil strengthen strategic trade and investment partnership
China’s interest in Brazil and Latin America beyond is part of its ongoing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to extend China’s influence across Latin America and more broadly the Global South. Brazilian President Lula da Silva is eager to strengthen economic ties with China.
Taiwan: “The red line”
For Beijing, Taiwan is “the very core of China's core interests [and] the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations”. The US and its allies view the Taiwan Strait as a potential “choke point” for the global supply chain, while the Taiwan population is wary of provoking Beijing.
Semiconductors: The new global battlefield
Far-reaching US measures to sanction China’s developing semiconductor industry have already had extensive implications for the global supply chain. As chips power every device we own – from smart TVs to communication satellites – a new global battleground is being drawn.
The rise of Chinese state-sponsored cyber-attacks feeds growing US national security concerns
The global cyber security landscape has seen increasing threats over the last few years. The COVID pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan have all provided fertile ground for cyberattacks against businesses and individuals.
Pamir opinion: U.S.-China competition in building critical elements supply chains intensifies
Growing commercial and government concerns are intensifying U.S. efforts to diversify its critical minerals and rare earth elements supply chains as it’s far too reliant on imports, particularly from China.
How are China and Russia advancing their shared agendas?
Download our recent analyst paper to understand the key implications of recent China-Russia diplomatic developments.
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