Cross-Strait Tensions
Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 1: Strategic Outlook 2024: US-China Relations
US-China strategic competition stands at a critical juncture and is likely to intensify in 2024.
China Update - China’s new Foreign State Immunity Law - 2 October 2023
China invested RMB 3.782 trillion ($519 billion) in technology R&D in 2022, up 10.1% YoY and the seventh year of double-digit growth, according to Chinese government data released on 20 September.
Taiwan Update - China’s use of AI for its influence campaign - 18 September 2023
On 8 September in an interview with Bloomberg, Taiwan’s de-facto ambassador to Washington HSIAO Bi-khim said Taiwan’s semiconductor companies are holding back their investments in the US because of “unreasonable and unfair” double taxation.
Taiwan Update - Assertive rhetoric from Beijing and Taipei on potential cross- Strait confrontation - 17 July 2023
On 4 July Taiwan Vice President William Lai, the ruling DPP’s 2024 presidential candidate, published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal spelling out his “four-pillar plan” to preserve peace across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan Update - China-Russia coordinated actions in the Taiwan Strait - 3 July 2023
Laura Rosenberger, the new chair of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the de facto US Embassy, recently met with each of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential candidates from the top three political parties.
Camp David – An unprecedented trilateral partnership
On 18 August, the three leaders of the US, Japan, and South Korea convened at Camp David in Maryland and agreed an unprecedented trilateral partnership that, according to them, “advances the security and prosperity of our people, the Indo-Pacific region, and the world.”
Tensions mount as Taiwan elections draw nearer
Washington is having to tread a delicate diplomatic tightrope as China starts to ramp up pressure on Taipei in advance of Taiwan’s presidential elections in January 2024.
NATO angers China. France blocks NATO liaison office in Tokyo
Beijing criticized NATO’s calling out China’s aggressive behavior and disruption of a rules- based world order, further raising tensions between China and NATO member states. China is attempting to exploit divisions within NATO to halt the alliance’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific.
US-Philippines relations warm amid Chinese provocations
The Philippines is having to walk a thin line between appeasing China and supporting US and allied regional security.
US-Taiwan-G7 Leaders: Building trade partnerships and mitigating risk from China
As the US and Taiwan foster closer trading partnerships and increased bilateral trade flows, China has retaliated with sanctions on US and Taiwanese companies and has conducted military drills near the island, as growing trade tensions threaten to spill over into military tensions, increasing the risk of sea and air miscalculations.
Taiwan Update - Elevated risk environment in Taiwan Strait - 15 March 2023
On 6 March Defense Minister CHIU Kuo-cheng said Taiwan will not fire the first shot but will fire if Beijing enters Taiwan’s 12 nautical mile territorial waters. Chiu said, “China has changed the status quo of the Taiwan Strait by flying drones, aircraft, and balloons over our airspace, [and Beijing] could, without warning, break into our territorial sea baseline of 24 nautical miles and approach our territorial space of 12 nautical miles.”
China, Taiwan and the US – Pamir’s analysts assess Taiwan Strait tensions
At the end of March The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world, reported that Americans are increasingly worried about China-Taiwan tensions. According to Pew, 47% of US adults say tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem for their country, up 4% since October 2022 and 19% since February 2021.
Taiwan Update - Increasing pressure on ruling DPP - 20 February 2023
China is proactively helping pro-unification parties in Taiwan in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.
Risk to civilian ships and aircraft in the South China Sea
In recent years, China has militarized several disputed islands in the South China Sea. As an essential artery for world trade, it poses an economic and political security threat to the world. Increasing skirmishes between China, the US, Australia, and other countries, is also increasing the risk of incidents involving civilian shipping and aircraft.
Taiwan: “The red line”
For Beijing, Taiwan is “the very core of China's core interests [and] the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations”. The US and its allies view the Taiwan Strait as a potential “choke point” for the global supply chain, while the Taiwan population is wary of provoking Beijing.
Visit our Resources hub
