US Congress Supports New Taiwan Administration

Pamir expects that the US Congress will demonstrate support for the incoming Taiwan president through congressional visits, despite China’s ongoing hostile actions toward Taiwan. US military forces, especially INDOPACOM, will continue to monitor Chinese military activities in the Taiwan Strait in anticipation of likely Chinese responses to the outcome of Taiwan’s election and to potential high-level US congressional visits.

On 24 January a bipartisan congressional delegation led by Congressional Taiwan Caucus co-chairs Representatives Mario Diaz Balart and Ami Bera arrived in Taiwan for a three-day visit. This was the first of several congressional delegations scheduled to visit Taiwan in the coming months. It is speculated that US House Speaker Mike Johnson may visit Taiwan to attend the presidential inauguration of William Lai on 20 May. 

• Johnson’s visit could prompt dramatic reactions from Beijing, as was the case in 2022 when then Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. China’s ramping up of military activity around Taiwan has persisted to the present.

On the same day that the bipartisan congressional delegation arrived in Taipei, the US guided missile destroyer USS John Finn sailed through the Taiwan Strait, marking the first US naval transit through the Strait in 2024. On 25 January the Chinese Defense Ministry criticized the transit as “harassment and provocation on China’s doorstep.” In 2023, US Navy and Coast Guard ships and naval reconnaissance planes reportedly made 11 transits through the Strait.

Admiral John Aquilino, Commander of INDOPACOM, reportedly stated on 16 January that the US expects China to demonstrate “force against Taiwan in the near term” due to the outcome of the Taiwan presidential election, which saw a victory by pro-independence minded Lai. According to Aquilino, Chinese “actions over the past number of years have been pretty consistent. When something occurs that they don’t like, they tend to take action.”