Tensions in the South China Sea Remain High Despite China-Philippines Agreement

In July, Beijing and Manila reached an agreement on a “provisional arrangement” over the Philippines’ resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal with the hope of de-escalating the situation in the South China Sea. However, tensions in the region remain high with a significant rise in military activities during the month of August. Pamir assesses that Beijing will continue and may even expand its “grey zone” operations in the South China Sea, but it will seek to prevent tensions from spiraling into military confrontations that might trigger direct US military involvement and disturb commercial traffic in the region.   

In the early morning of 19 August, Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard vessels collided near Sabina Shoal, an uninhabited reef located 75 nautical miles from the Philippines and 30 nautical miles east of the Second Thomas Shoal (STS; China’s government refers to the shoal as Ren’ai Jiao). According to the Philippine authorities, the collisions resulted in damage to two Philippine Coast Guard vessels. Beijing and Manila accused each other of causing the collisions.

This incident took place approximately one month after the 21 July announcement that China and the Philippines reached a “provisional arrangement” regarding the resupply of a grounded Philippine warship on the STS.  

• The STS is a submerged reef in the South China Sea (SCS). In 1999, the Philippines intentionally grounded a warship, BRP Sierra Madre, on the reef to assert its sovereignty over the atoll, which lies within its claimed Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The STS is close to the major shipping route known as Palawan Passage and an ideal extension of China’s militarized Mischief Reef, which lies just 25 miles from the shoal. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan all claim sovereignty over the STS and its surrounding areas.
• Confrontations between China and the Philippines stem from China’s repeated efforts to prevent the Philippines from resupplying the grounded Philippine ship, where a small detachment of Philippine marine is stationed. The latest wave of Chinese intervention began in November 2021. China has claimed that the Philippines included construction materials in these resupply missions with the goal of turning the grounded vessel into a permanent outpost.

The “Provisional Arrangement”

The “provisional arrangement” was reached following a series of “frank and constructive” meetings at the Ninth Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea held on 2 July. The meetings resulted in an agreement to establish a three-level communication mechanism, according to the Philippine media. The mechanism reportedly involves “special representatives” designated by the two governments, their respective foreign ministers or their deputies, and the coast guard authorities of the two countries. Neither government has revealed the details of the “provisional arrangement.” 

• On the day of the announcement, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs released a brief statement after the agreement was reached: “Both sides continue to recognize the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation and agree that the agreement will not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea.”

Shortly after midnight on 22 July, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a brief statement accusing the Philippines of instigating the current situation around the STS and laying out the conditions for China to “allow” the Philippines to resupply the grounded Philippine vessel. 

• The statement says, “By keeping its warship grounded at Ren’ai Jiao [STS] for decades, the Philippines has been violating China’s sovereignty and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea [DOC], especially Article 5, which says the parties should refrain from actions of inhabiting uninhabited islands and reefs. We continue to demand that the Philippines tow away the warship and restore Ren’ai Jiao’s state of hosting no personnel or facilities.” 
• According to the statement, “between now and when the warship is towed away, should the Philippines need to send living necessities to personnel living on the warship, China is willing to allow it in a humanitarian spirit if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted. China will monitor the entire resupply process.” The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs responded by stating that China’s statement “regarding prior notification and on-site confirmation is inaccurate.”
• The statement adds, “If the Philippines were to send a large amount of construction materials to the warship and attempt to build fixed facilities or a permanent outpost, China will absolutely not accept it and will resolutely stop it in accordance with the law and regulations to uphold China’s sovereignty and the sanctity of the DOC.”

On 27 July, Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs announced that the Philippines completed an unimpeded resupply mission to its grounded ship at the STS. A senior Philippines security official told Associated Press that the two countries’ coast guard authorities communicated for the purpose of mission coordination. 

• Chinese Coast Guard vessels did not block the mission but stayed “at a reasonable distance.” A Chinese Coast Guard spokesman said the Philippines delivered “daily necessities” to the grounded ship “in accordance with the provisional agreement [and] China Coast Guard confirmed it [and] supervised and managed the entire process.” He also said, “It is hoped that the Philippines will honor its commitments, work with China halfway, and jointly manage the maritime situation.” 

On 1 August 2024, Bloomberg reported that, according to four Philippine sources, the Philippines completed fortification of its grounded ship at the STS and reported that the outpost can last at least another decade, if not more.

• On 10 April 2024, in response to China’s claim that a 2017 “gentlemen’s agreement” between Beijing and the Duterte government of the Philippines stipulated that Manila would not send construction materials to the STS, President Marcos said, “I am not aware of any such arrangement or agreement that the Philippines will remove from its own territory its own ship… [and] if there does exist such an agreement, I rescind that agreement now.” 

On 13 August, the Philippine Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs said the “provisional arrangement” with China concerning the STS is subject to “future review.”   

Military Activities in the SCS on the Rise

Meanwhile, military activities in the SCS involving the US, Japan, Australia, and Canada have ramped up. The four countries do not have claims on territories in the region.  

• On 2 August, Japan and the Philippines conducted their first-ever joint military exercise in the SCS.
• Between 5-9 August, Philippine and Vietnamese Coast Guards conducted a joint exercise in the SCS. On 5 August, a Chinese drone flew approximately 100 kilometers off the coast of Vietnam, signaling Chinese displeasure over the joint exercise. Vietnam said that the Chinese drone violated its airspace.
• Between 7-9 August, the US, Australia, Canada, and the Philippines carried out joint naval and air force exercises in the SCS. The commander of the Chinese Southern Theater Command criticized the exercises as “military activities that disrupt the South China Sea.” In response, the Chinese military conducted drills in the area around Scarborough Shoal on 7 August.
• On 9 August, two Chinese fighters intercepted a Philippine maritime patrol aircraft near Scarborough Shoal and fired flares in front of the aircraft. The Philippines said that the Chinese actions were illegal, reckless, and dangerous. China said the Philippine aircraft violated Chinese airspace and intruded on China’s military exercise area. 

On 19 August, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, which is owned by the Chinese company Alibaba Group, published an interview with Wu Shicun, a highly influential Chinese expert who founded the Beijing-sponsored National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan Province. During the interview, Wu blamed the US for militarizing the SCS. He added that the possibility of war in the SCS cannot be completely ruled out. However, he said that China should take the lead in promoting the demilitarization of the region “by providing an island – like Meiji Jiao [Mischief Reef] – where an oceanic observatory could be built and scientists from the Philippines and Vietnam could be invited to take part in it.” 

Nick Sama, Intern, Pamir Consulting, contributed to this blog.