China-Philippines Maritime Dispute Intensifies

Chinese and Philippine naval and coast guard maritime maneuvers around Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea are heightening regional tensions. Pamir assesses that the intensifying maritime dispute is steadily increasing the likelihood of accidents that may negatively impact commercial shipping lanes and supply chains.   

Chinese and Philippine military maneuvers in the area surrounding the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea ramped up in the second half of February. 

• On 15 and 16 February, Chinese Coast Guard ships tried several times to block a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) supply ship that was bringing food and fuel to Filipino fishmen operating in the area surrounding Scarborough Shoal. BFAR later charged that Chinese fishermen used cyanide to destroy fishing grounds in the area surrounding the shoal, a claim that China denied. 
• One week later, on 22 and 23 February, Chinese Coast Guard ships and a BFAR vessel had a similar confrontation in the area.
• On 27 February, the Philippine Coast Guard reported that a Chinese naval helicopter jammed the communications and tracking systems of Philippine ships operating in the area. 

Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Dao in Chinese, is a rock located approximately 120 nautical miles west of the Philippine island of Luzon. It is claimed by the Philippines, China, and Taiwan, but the feature has been under China’s effective control since 2012, according to CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.   

On 26 February, in response to a question about China’s reinstallation of barriers at the mouth of Scarborough Shoal that were removed by the Philippines in September 2023, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “In response to a series of moves by the Philippines in the waters of Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal], China is compelled to take necessary measures to firmly safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.” 

In the first half of February, Chinese naval forces initiated patrols in response to Philippine military operations involving the US and its allies around Scarborough Shoal. 

• On 7-8 February, US, Japanese, and Australian naval vessels conducted a joint exercise in the South China Sea, the second such exercise since August 2023. 
• On 9 February, the US and the Philippines conducted the third iteration of Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) since launching it in November 2023. A statement from the Philippine government said that the latest MCA “underscored both nations’ firm commitment to reinforce security and stability across the Indo-Pacific region.” MCA involves US and Philippine naval ships and aircraft operating jointly.
• On 9 February the Chinese military’s Southern Theater Command announced that it commenced “maritime and aerial patrols” in the South China Sea to demonstrate its “determination to safeguard China’s sovereignty and maritime rights.”
• On 19 February a US B-52H bomber and three Philippine fighters conducted a joint aerial patrol over the northeastern part of the South China Sea. The Chinese military claimed that the patrol was an example of the Philippines conspiring with outside forces to disturb stability in the South China Sea. The Chinese military monitored US and Philippine aircraft involved in the patrol.